Category Archives: COVID

Masks follow up

Neal Priest is unable to offer a scientifically valid counterargument to my hypothesis that masks may enhance the spread of Covid. In place of one, we are treated to the old logical fallacy of appealing to authority. He cites a number of dubious scientific “studies” and proceeds to quote some of the more opaque but scientific sounding lingo — e.g. “Bayesian hierarchical model” — in order to mesmerize the reader into accepting his premise. 

Has he read any of these studies himself? I doubt it. They are among the most embarrassing pieces of non-science published in our lifetimes. 

You can instantly see the problem with these studies in just one word: model. All the studies showing “masks work” are based on models or deploy a model to “interpret” cherry-picked empirical data. Models are easily manipulated to yield the answer the author wants and cannot be trusted. When applied to what has, oddly enough, become a partisan issue, they should definitely be ignored. 

Yes, masks “stop particles” and in that sense they “work” mechanistically. But mechanistic function does not necessarily equate to goal achievement. A sponge absorbs water but it won’t stop your basement from flooding. Mechanical functionality is a necessary but not sufficient component in preventing infection. Masks become saturated with moisture, dirt, and particles. They are easily bypassed when not fitted properly (spoiler: they are almost never fitted properly). They allow some particles through, and if you tighten the porosity to prevent that, you only enhance the bypass effect. 

The irony is that the only mask that would actually work is a respirator, but how about that: those were specifically forbidden in all the mandates. And since we don’t know the viral load needed to infect someone there is no rationale, objective way to assert effectiveness. The “experts” are literally just guessing. 

When we return to the real world from the fantasy world of models, we find the data shows zero effect on community infection rates. Japan, the poster child for “masks work,” has 99% compliance but a case rate through the roof since January (see below). 

This phenomenon can be replicated across the world, again and again. “It would have been worse without them” is not an answer, because it simply asserts the very thing that needs to be proven.  Meanwhile, in Sweden the only people wearing masks are deluded American tourists, and there have been no ill effects.

The null hypothesis puts the burden of proof on the mask proponents. If there is even one instance showing masks “don’t work” then the entire hypothesis must be discarded. Science is not a game in which each side scores points and the winner is whoever is currently ahead. The hypothesis is either true or it is not. 

Priest can cite however many model based studies that he wants, but I need only to point to a single study showing no effect from masks. But my side doesn’t have just one study. We have countless thousands. Every chart comparing locales with and without a mask mandate only underscores their total lack of utility. 

If masks “worked,” it should be easy to look at the charts of various countries and determine when large-scale masking, or mask mandates, must have been introduced. But the results are instead entirely random. In Austria, Spain, Belgium, the UK, Germany, Italy, and so on, if I showed you the charts of their Covid results you would have no way of figuring out when mask mandates began in each country. But if masks are worth arguing about, shouldn’t their effects be so clear that we can easily determine when they started being used on a large scale?

No matter how much Neil may wish it were otherwise, most people agree with me. Just visit any airport or sporting event now that the mask mandates are gone. The ratio of mask-free to masked is easily a hundred and often a thousand to one. People are smart and see through the dissembling of the mask nags. Witness “our democracy” in action every day as people vote with their faces. 

Masks incubate Covid, but no one seems to notice

It’s taken some time, but it’s nice to keep being proven right years later. I made a prediction 

https://porcupine-musings.org/2020/10/19/postscript-to-unmasked-10-19-2020/

based on the material and chemical characteristics of masks and Covid particles, masks would enhance the spread of Covid. It seems some researchers have unwittingly provided evidence that supports this hypothesis, albeit indirectly. Once you, dear reader, read the article cited below the obvious insight should dawn on you: masks are great incubators for Covid virus particles. Thus the longer they (the particles) stay active and infectious the more likely the effect I hypothesize will occur. In other words, the absolute worst thing you can do is mask someone with Covid, it’s only going to concentrate and then disperse that concentrated stream of particles from their saturated mask. 

My tweet storm:



Researchers demonstrated that the humidity differential between the throat/mouth and the outside air upon exhalation of SARS-CoV-2 particles results in a reduction of infectiousness by 50% within seconds and by 90% within 20 minutes. It was also reported that the virus survives longer at lower pH, thus upon exhalation its survival time will be further negatively impacted. This is due to the fact that the rapid decrease in partial pressure of CO2 in any expelled aerosol results in a rapid increase in pH (CO2 drives pH downward, thus its removal drives pH upward.)

Where would we be more likely to find a humid environment with a higher than average level of CO2? Perhaps within the confines of a mask? Indeed, masks are the PERFECT incubation device for extending the useful life of externalized SARS-CoV-2 particles. As they build and build and build within the balmy CO2 rich environs they eventually reach a critical mass on the interior of any mask at which point, like a vacuum cleaner bag that can hold no more, they will start leaking through the other side in a constant steady stream of active virus. Now one might argue the mask has merely delayed the exhalation event and that emission from a mask is no different than from one’s mouth. However the critical difference is that the particles have been concentrated within the mask, so now each breath pushes out a much higher concentration than was originally emitted from ones mouth. This effect is augmented by the moral hazard of people believing they are protected while donning a mask so they will tend to stand closely together thinking they are “safe.” 

You are much safer to stand together unmasked where (a) the concentration of SARS-CoV-2 particles is lower upon exhalation in comparison to a fully saturated mask and (b) any that do exit the non-masked mouth will rapidly decline in infectiousness.

Variant of Hope

Fauci has seen his shadow – and so we are on course for another 6 weeks of ineffective overreactions on account of the latest “variant of concern.” The media is gleefully reporting that this Omicron variant of Covid-19 is poised to wreak havoc. These same media nags are also happy to inform us that the blame for all new variants rests squarely with the unvaccinated. As usual the truth is the exact opposite.

            Evolution is not driven only by mutations. It also requires selective pressure to work its magic. Emergence of dominant variants will occur more quickly in the vaccinated than the unvaccinated because of selective pressure. Here’s why. The vaccines we have do not prevent transmission (no sterilizing immunity).  Any transmission that does occur will necessarily be enriched in variants not recognized by vaccine-derived antibodies. 

            To be clear, variants can arise in both vaccinated and unvaccinated hosts. The difference is that artificially applied selective pressure (vaccine-derived antibodies) will immediately favor any non-targeted variants. Such variants aren’t necessarily less lethal, rather merely unrecognized. However, in the unvaccinated only natural selection is active. Natural selection when applied to pathogens tends to weaken them. Viruses that give their host the sniffles pass on their genes. Viruses that kill their host don’t. Upshot: natural selection favors non-lethal variants, artificial selection does not.

            The counter-narrative suggests that the unvaccinated are a cauldron of variants spilling onto their otherwise variant-free vaccinated brethren. When these variants hop to a vaccinated host, then the vaccine antibodies act as a sieve, blocking the original variant and allowing the newer ones to pass on. This is just wrong. The only difference between a vaccinated and unvaccinated host is that a vaccinated host will block the alpha strain. That’s it. They will both foster an equivalent degree of variants. Those suggesting otherwise believe fear and shame are a cudgel to manipulate the masses into compliance with the fantasy of “zero Covid.” 

            Another common myth is that the Omicron variant arose in largely unvaccinated South Africa. This idea is a case study in logical fallacies. First, correlation is not causation. Second, observation bias is not reality. If ants invade your home and you discover them in the bathroom that doesn’t mean that’s where they entered. Nobody was looking for “omicron”. Then someone happened to discover it first. Now everyone is looking for it — and lo and behold it’s everywhere! The only way to justify travel bans and renewed lockdown measures is to pretend that Omicron is “spreading quickly” because it is being discovered everywhere. Funny how governments always choose the interpretation of reality that maximizes their power.

            Although intuition suggests what is good for the individual must also be good for the group, this is not always the case. For example, antibiotics benefit an individual with an infection, however mandating them as a universal prophylaxis would be catastrophically bad. This is also true of mask mandates where moral hazard effects overwhelm whatever tiny benefits a mask may provide to an individual. With the Covid-19 vaccinations we see the same individual vs. the collective bifurcation. Evolution’s effects lie dormant for the individual but are emergent within a collective.

            With a non-sterilizing vaccine the proper strategy is to give it only to the very small subset of at-risk individuals (however so defined). These will be a tiny minority of the population so any individualized selection toward some variant will not come to dominate.

            The political establishment is plowing forward without any regard for the unseen future consequences of their policy of universal vaccination. This is the danger of letting politicians rule the world: their bias is to favor short-term solutions that are “seen” while ignoring long-term consequences that are “unseen”. Short-term actions get them re-elected. Long-term consequences are a problem for future Homer. The only silver lining is that variants such as Omicron represent a new hope – an end to Covid as it evolves into the common cold. 

The shape of things to come…

The ultimate test for any scientific hypothesis is its power of prediction. Correctly predicting future events demonstrate one has a true understanding of the subject. An objective analysis of the lessons of history and the impact of a state-centric societal structure can reveal some obvious patterns as well (e.g. fear, rather than reason, as a driver of policy, groupthink pushing out minority opinions resulting in a monoculture of thought, etc.). I am willing to make some predictions based on these patterns:

By January 1, 2032 the following listed items will be generally accepted as true. To be clear I do not merely mean some obscure source will publish supporting information. I make the stronger claim that these predictions will become the dominant mainstream narrative. Just as everyone who was originally cheering for the Iraq invasion now acknowledges it was a colossal mistake, so too will opinion flip on Covid-19 over a similar time frame (8-10 years)

1) Long term studies and comparative statistical analysis will reveal that Covid-19 was not the apocalyptic threat we were led to believe initially. Differential analysis of a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions will show that these measures had no impact on the course of the virus. In other words, cases soared and plummeted exactly as they always have in prior pandemics with no mitigation measures (see Hope-Simpson, 1981)1. It was always going to be a 0.05% global death rate no matter what. 

2) It will be proven that masks actually enhanced the spread of the virus. The mechanism will be shown to be an aerosolization of concentrated viral particles by those wearing masks for extended periods. Pundits will navel gaze and suggest “in the future” we should never assume our intuition is correct and that it is important to analyze trade-offs before implementing policy. There is a 10% chance this claim will not bear out because it will be revealed that masks were entirely superfluous because the dominant infection vector was a fecal-aerosol route (in layman’s terms, it was in the farts)2.

3) The Covid-19 spike protein will be proven to be the toxic agent for certain individuals with a particular set of biological markers that can be tested for. It is only after giving the spike-protein laden vaccine to 3 billion people does a pattern of oddly consistent cardiac issues emerge and it is realized other parts of the virus would have been safer targets for triggering an immune response. Oops. Guess that is what happens when you rush a vaccine to market without really understanding the target pathogen.

4) The DTAP vaccine will be shown to be the primary reason those under age 24 were nearly universally immune to any serious consequences from Covid (as all children must get DTAP for school). Following this revelation the various Covid vaccines will be pulled from the market and a general (and safer) DTAP vaccination is used for anyone concerned about Covid.

5) Additional longer-term studies will demonstrate that Hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin are effective agents in attenuating symptoms of Covid and preventing death when given at the proper stage of infection. No one will apologize to Trump.

6) The driver’s license/state ID will emerge as a de facto “Vaccine Passport” as impositions by the federal government (TSA) for proof of vaccination will merge vaccination status into the REAL ID system. Driver licenses will henceforth require annual renewals, as it will be necessary to show proof of your annual Covid and flu shots. Since a driver’s license/state ID is already required for a myriad of activities (work, banking, loans, leases, travel, but not voting, that would be racist) it will be trivial for the Federal (or state) governments to push onto the citizenry new annual vaccines. Politicians can then innocently claim this is not a “vaccine passport”, rather an “enhanced drivers license.” Once politicians discover they can mandate behavior by making one’s ability to interact in the world contingent on compliance with their dicta, then there will be no end of the items that will henceforth be linked to one’s drivers license (“to renew your license this year requires a minimum Social Credit Score of 80”). 

7) The “lab release” theory on the origin of Covid will transition from fringe conspiracy theory to generally accepted as a reasonable hypothesis and eventually proven as definitely true. Whoops! This one is happening in real time. 

My only caveat to these predictions is that I may be overestimating the time frame. I originally predicted on these pages in February 2019 that Jussie Smollet would be shown to be a liar within 6 months; the actual time frame? 6 days. So it would not surprise me if most of these come to pass within 4 years or sooner. We shall see. In the meantime see if you can beat the Covid quiz at: www.covidchartsquiz.com

Mask Equivocation

            Do masks “work”? We keep hearing that term thrown around by the politicos, talking heads, and media nags, but they never bother to define it. There is a reason for this. The reason? Equivocation. Equivocation is the deployment of ambiguous language so that one may never be called out for inaccuracies. If a word can have multiple meanings then you can safely call up whichever meaning gets you your get of jail free card. So when they say “masks work” what they are factually referring to is the ability of a properly fitted N95 mask to offer limited utility in limited situations for a limited duration. But they don’t mention those details. Rather, they reference that term without context in order that you the listener (or reader) will assume the discussion relates to the policy, not science, position regarding masks. Namely that they have been shown to effectively halt or diminish the rate of infection and death among populations that deploy them universally. This belief, however, is not supported by empirical evidence. Positive claims such as these (X does Y) are subject to the scientific method because they are falsifiable. That means it is possible to conceive of an experimental outcome that would not support the claim. For example, scientists once thought that electromagnetism travelled through a medium known as the ether. Experiments were done that supported the claim. Then one day an experiment was done that did not (Michelson-Morley). That one experiment overturned the entire theory of the ether. That is how falsifiability works. It does not matter if you have a thousand studies that support your claim. It only takes one piece of empirical evidence that does not and that claim is void or must be adjusted to conform to the new evidence. 

            This is the situation with “masks work.” Yes, the New York Times may cherry pick some locality that introduced masks followed by declining “cases” (I’m looking at you selectively charted Kansas counties). They may even find dozens of those. But we only need one that doesn’t conform to the narrative (all things equal). We have hundreds (numerous examples can be found at twitter.com/yinonw and here). But I’ll share just a couple of the most damning ones here. 

            Connecticut (97%), Massachusetts (97%), and California (94%) all have had continuous mask mandates for the chart period (compliance rate%). Florida (89%) ended theirs at the point shown. If you weren’t told could you pick out the state with no societal restrictions (masking, gatherings, school, sports, etc.)? Not only did cases rise among all four, they rose concurrently. That seems like an odd coincidence for such geographically disparate locales (Northeast, West, and South). Almost like the virus follows a well-established seasonality profile that is invariant to our various mitigation measures. And to be fair we can see that even though there is no state mandate in Florida the masking rate is still quite high (89%) in Florida (86% in Georgia for the curious). But this still doesn’t really help the masks work camp; all four states are rising (indeed the more compliant masking states are rising faster). There is simply no correlation of the proposed measure with the desired outcome. You may claim crowing roosters cause the sun to rise and cite numerous correlated examples; but I only have to provide one example of the sun rising in silence to settle that argument.

            If the masks “worked” then the “cases” would remain at baseline noise and never rise. Or would rise in some clear relationship between mask compliance rates and cases. Not even that is seen. Clearly something else is at work here. Clearly the masks are not having the effect that the “experts” tell us they should. At this point the masks serve no other purpose than as an externalized reminder from the state that we are in a self-made “crisis” that only the state can save us from. That’s quite convenient. But for the masks we would be unaware of anything amiss. A true crisis doesn’t require daily reminders that there is in fact a crisis. Ask yourselves then, why does this one?

Postscript to Unmasked 10-19-2020

Shortly after the release of my article a paper appeared in Nature’s Scientific Reports that investigated the suitability of various types of masks (N95, surgical, cloth, etc) to compare their efficacy in decreasing particle expulsion (source control). This is one of the better of the “pro-mask” type articles in that they are completely open and honest about the limitations of their studies as well as raising a very interesting hypothesis that if true, could very well mean masks are making the spread worse.

The idea is this: you breath out and the masks captures the particles. Ok. Where do they go? They don’t simply vanish into another universe. If they are adhered to droplets and aerosols (water) then once that material builds up on the mask interior further breathing will actually re-aersolize it through the mask spraying it out like a spray can. This would have the effect of creating a much broader and more disperse ejection of material given that it is now concentrated in one spot. Likewise, even if the water particles evaporate leaving the viral particles behind – they still exist – on the mask. They are now attached to the fibers etc of the mask. These are no irreversible chemical bonds, they are loose electrostatic interactions. This is important because this study showed that cloth masks actually produced more particles than no mask at all. The reason for this being that breathing through it cause mask material itself to become dislodged and break free. So if a virus can attach to these then the virus will be hitching a ride on them.

This casts serious doubt on the mitigation effects of masks insofar as it demonstrates the very real possibility that at best they are doing nothing whatsoever and at worst they could be amplifying the spread. The only way to avoid this scenario would be to use N95 or surgical masks and change them out for new ones over the course of a few minutes. We know this is not happening nor is it practical in an real sense to expect that. Therefore the best approach is to only mask the vulnerable with suitable masks and use such masking as a signal to others to maintain a wide berth and take other protective measures. If every tree is marked then which tree has the pot of gold?

Unmasked

“We know that wearing a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any, protection from infection. Public health authorities define a significant exposure to Covid-19 as face-to-face contact within 6 feet with a patient with symptomatic Covid-19 that is sustained for at least a few minutes (and some say more than 10 minutes or even 30 minutes). The chance of catching Covid-19 from a passing interaction in a public space is therefore minimal. In many cases, the desire for widespread masking is a reflexive reaction to anxiety over the pandemic.”

New England Journal of Medicine, 2020; 382:363

These days everyone imagines himself or herself to be a scientist. Scolds, who labor under the delusion that reading the New York Times is equivalent to holding a doctorate, unceasingly inflict on us finger-wagging lectures about how we need to “listen to the science” when it comes to masks. Apparently “masks work” because “The Science™” says so. Newsflash: these media figures and self-styled authorities aren’t (largely) scientists and know not of what they speak. As a scientist myself I feel compelled to set the record straight on what is, and is not, science. For those degreed scientists out there parroting the mask propaganda: for shame, you should know better. Cherry picking, selection bias, anecdotal data, and dubious models have no place in the arsenal of scientific inquiry. 

What is the claim built on?

Here’s the problem with “the science” about masks: the media cited studies are built on a foundation of sand. They are based on computer models1, anecdotal stories2, theoretical mechanistic (non-biological) analysis, or hypothetical contra factual scenarios.1 In short, if the conclusion of a study rests on “this would have happened” then that is not science. Science does not compare contra factual or hypothetical scenarios. It analyzes concrete, reproducible, controlled conditions (that are broad enough to be statistically valid).  In every single story where there has been a reference made to evidence that “masks work” and I have drilled down through the 42 layers of links to get at the actual research document, it turns out the study is, surprise, based on a contra factual model, anecdote, or purely mechanistic study. Every. Single. Time. How do models support the claims? They make a “post-diction” for an alternate universe where masks were not deployed. Then they compare those values to the real world and wouldn’t you know, the numbers are lower when masks are used. The non-scientist with little time to drill down to the source will credulously accept what is read. Why shouldn’t they? An “authority” was cited and we’ve been trained from childhood to be predisposed toward trusting those perceived to be “in charge”. This is why whenever one questions the mask narrative the response is invariably “so and so said they work.” This is nothing more than the common logical fallacy known as an appeal to authority. Such a response deflects the inquiry, it does not answer it. When you encounter an appeal to authority your BS meter should max out. We should take every news story with a grain of salt and seek answers to the artfully omitted questions. Everyone has an agenda, even me. My agenda is to set the record straight and not allow the noble scientific profession to be prostituted in service of state propaganda. I encourage the reader to question and consider my assertions and to verify my claims by the references provided.

Question the models

One of the problems with models is their perception by the public as infallible fonts of knowledge. The media reinforces this narrative by credulously reporting model-based claims without any scrutiny. They never consider questioning the underlying assumptions built into the models. Models are easily manipulated. They are malleable and versatile instruments. In the hands of a virtuoso they can play any tune. They are tools of science, but they are not science themselves. Science is not SimCity. Science is doing real work in the real world to gather real data. Once one has collected data, then one may develop a model – based on that data – to make predictions about the future. Those predictions are then tested (i.e. the prediction is falsifiable). It is impossible to check a post-diction for a contra factual universe. The impossibility of such verification precludes falsifiability of the claim and in doing so removes it from the realm of science toward “what-if” fantasy. 

Evidence against the claim?

The reader might now be wondering, “well where is the evidence against masks?” Sorry, that’s not how science works. Those making the novel claim carry the onus to support it. You have to prove your claim; I do not have to disprove it. A claim cannot be said to be true because there does not yet exist evidence disproving it. This is the same as the foundation of our legal system; innocent until proven guilty. Guilt is a novel positive claim and must be proven. Were this also not the standard in science, then one could claim ghosts exist because no one has definitively proven they do not exist. With that said, because the “masks work” claim is a scientific one it is therefore subject to falsifiability. If it is true, then we should see fewer real world infections when use vs. non-use scenarios are compared.. Is that what we see? Unfortunately, no. There are a number of studies in the literature from the pre-Covid era regarding real world mask effectiveness at limiting contagions. In short none of them demonstrated any statistically significant diminishment in real world viral spread. 3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11

Correlation not Causation

The lack of substantive empirical data in real world environments has shifted the focus toward teasing out a positive correlation between mask use and case loads by reviewing case counts across cities, states, and countries over time. One may certainly cherry pick a country, state or time frame where mask use is high and case rates are low. But for every one of those you can find several more that counter it.12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19 The scientific method demands one looks at all the data, not just the data that confirms the preconceived conclusion (selection bias). When all localities are analyzed, the aggregate results demonstrate zero correlation between masks and case counts. Zero. However, even this is a bad metric for both sides. There are simply way too many variables at play to claim this one thing (masks) had an effect or did not relative to other competing influences. However it certainly doesn’t help the “masks work” camp that the vast majority of such comparisons show no correlation or a negative correlation (i.e. better outcomes in low mask use localities). Correlation does not prove causation; but, it is impossible to have causation without correlation.

At what cost?

Compelled mask wearing (along with all the other various restrictions on normal life) is morally equivalent to the banning of alcohol, drugs, and firearms: a handful might be irresponsible so all must suffer the remedy in order to protect a vanishingly small minority. This mode of thinking, sacrificing the many in favor of a few, does not come without costs. The reflexive objection here is that the benefits could be substantial while the costs should be minimal. Perhaps in March that approach might have been sound given the ignorance surrounding what we were dealing with. But here we are months later and it has become clear who is at risk and who is not. It has become clear that widespread mask use does not correlate well with reduced cases. 12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19   It has become clear that asymptomatic spread is a negligible risk vector.20 Countries such as Canada, Australia, and even Sweden have much lower mask compliance but with equal or lower case loads and deaths per capita than the US.21 If the effect was substantially beneficial we would not expect this outcome. A benefit too small to be measured must be weighed against a cost that is measurable. The longer people suffer under these mandates the costs come into greater focus. Interacting with a sea of faceless zombies is disrupting normal social cues, interactions, and at some level social cohesion itself. A smile can brighten ones day. Sadly, those are cancelled for now. This is stressful to the human psyche in a way that is not easily accountable. Theoretically solitary confinement shouldn’t be mentally taxing – and yet perplexingly it is among the harshest of punishments. Social interaction matters. Likewise on the individual level there are increasing reports of inflamed skin conditions and fungal infections from prolonged mask use.22 Further, fatigue and “brain fog” are elevated by long-term excess CO2 inhalation.23 No, masks do not decrease oxygen intake, but they do increase CO2 intake  – even the pro-mask camp admits that – although they try to hand wave it away by disclaiming that such high levels of CO2 are “tolerable” or pose no “serious” health risk. But, just because something is tolerable or not serious does not mean it is ideal either. No air conditioning on a 95 °F day is “tolerable” too but I doubt many would enjoy it long term. Would you forgo air conditioning forever if you were told it would save 10 lives? I suspect few would willingly partake in that offer. We are allowing the scolds to rhetorically guilt us into a corner where non-compliance with their arbitrary dictates is equated with sociopathic behavior merely because it is claimed a life could be saved. That is a dangerous precedent. It opens the door to justifying any demand upon one’s behavior if one meekly submits. 

What should be done

A more effective strategy would be to shift from indiscriminate universal mandates and toward targeted and individualized interventions. Resources are limited and should be focused and not scattered about. For example, N95 masks do largely protect the wearer. Unless regulations are impeding production, there is no reason supplies should be constrained anymore. If there are regulations, then remove them.  If you are concerned about exposure to yourself, wear a properly fitted N95 mask. This would be self-regulating in direct proportion to its effectiveness. If cases went up, then more people would opt to don masks, which would then drive the cases back down. Because the proportion of society at elevated risk (mostly those above age 70 with health conditions) is a minority there should be no issue in supply of such masks. Additionally, there is some limited mechanistic evidence that surgical (not cloth) masks may be useful in limiting droplets and aerosols in ill patients (although the viral load found was barely measurable even without the mask).24,25 This may be useful in a health care or home setting. Restricting such mask use to those at risk (N95) or actively sick (surgical) has the added benefit of signaling to everyone around them that they are to be avoided. Targeted social distancing would be vastly superior to a universal mandate. Fatigue over this standard among the clearly healthy leads to lapses in maintaining it. Let those at low to no risk foster herd immunity while staying distanced from those who are sick or at risk. We all have a role to play. It is counterproductive to force all to play the exact same role. Allow the healthy to be exposed (natural vaccination) to build herd immunity while focusing protective resources on those actually at serious risk.

Individualized measures based on a person’s risk profile are how this country and the rest of the world handled such decennial pandemics up until now. The strategy this year: lockdowns, social distancing, universal mask mandates – these are the unprecedented policies that should be scrutinized with a skeptical, critical, science based, analysis. 

Gregory Morin  @gregtmorin

B.S., Chemistry, Emory University

M.S., Chemistry, Emory University

Ph.D., Organic Chemistry, University of Notre Dame

List of Citations

Postscript 10/19/2020

Shortly after the release of my article a paper appeared in Nature’s Scientific Reports that investigated the suitability of various types of masks (N95, surgical, cloth, etc) to compare their efficacy in decreasing particle expulsion (source control). This is one of the better of the “pro-mask” type articles in that they are completely open and honest about the limitations of their studies as well as raising a very interesting hypothesis that if true, could very well mean masks are making the spread worse.

The idea is this: you breath out and the masks captures the particles. Ok. Where do they go? They don’t simply vanish into another universe. If they are adhered to droplets and aerosols (water) then once that material builds up on the mask interior further breathing will actually re-aersolize it through the mask spraying it out like a spray can. This would have the effect of creating a much broader and more disperse ejection of material given that it is now concentrated in one spot. Likewise, even if the water particles evaporate leaving the viral particles behind – they still exist – on the mask. They are now attached to the fibers etc of the mask. These are no irreversible chemical bonds, they are loose electrostatic interactions. This is important because this study showed that cloth masks actually produced more particles than no mask at all. The reason for this being that breathing through it cause mask material itself to become dislodged and break free. So if a virus can attach to these then the virus will be hitching a ride on them.

This casts serious doubt on the mitigation effects of masks insofar as it demonstrates the very real possibility that at best they are doing nothing whatsoever and at worst they could be amplifying the spread. The only way to avoid this scenario would be to use N95 or surgical masks and change them out for new ones over the course of a few minutes. We know this is not happening nor is it practical in an real sense to expect that. Therefore the best approach is to only mask the vulnerable with suitable masks and use such masking as a signal to others to maintain a wide berth and take other protective measures. If every tree is marked then which tree has the pot of gold?

Postscript 2

I was interviewed on three podcasts concerning the content of this article and related matters. If interested take a listen here:

The Tom Woods Shows

Pauls to the Wall

Sports, Clicks, and Politics

Some Context

Information without context is not merely useless, it can be dangerous. Context is the landscape that grants the perspective by which we can make an informed judgment. For example, if your cholesterol is 150 but you don’t know what values are bad or good, the test’s accuracy, or what your prior values were, then it is impossible to know whether this news is of concern or not. Without context we are predisposed evolutionarily to assume the worst; if you assume everything is a threat you’re more likely to live long enough to pass on your genes. However, in the modern era this instinct can be counterproductive. Making a decision without relevant information is as bad as making a decision with completely wrong information. Amputating your leg “just to be safe” upon learning you have a tumor in your foot might seem prudent absent other information. But as soon as you learn such tumors are easily removed and rarely fatal then amputation should obviously be seen as overkill. As a country (and planet to a large extent) we have similarly overreacted amidst an ocean of context-free information: we have burned our proverbial house down to rid it of termites. The response has been disproportionate to the risk precisely because the media has failed to provide the proper context. Don’t ask  “how many” without also asking, “how does this compare.” Long-term side effects from Covid-19 sounds ominous, that is until you learn such long term side effects exist for the flu and many other ailments as well. Completely typical phenomena are being presented in isolation as though entirely unprecedented. Operating without context is like looking at a map with no scale: is the destination 10 ft or 100 miles? Without that informed framework to judge risk, people’s imaginations have run rampant to the point where healthy people literally believe death is all but certain if they step outside maskless. The only question left to ask: is this context-free milieu a result of intent, incompetence, or perverse incentives? A bit of all three as it turns out.

The rise of the Internet has fostered an environment where news media competition has become cutthroat. The Internet has dramatically diminished the legacy barriers to producing and distributing news content: the citizen journalist with nothing but his cell phone and a Twitter account is a force to be reckoned with now. This reality has opened the floodgates of competition. Reporting incentives now prioritize engagement and sensationalism over dispassionate objective reporting. Clicks lead to traffic and traffic justifies ad placement (incentives). To build a loyal audience many news organizations have opted to narrow rather than broaden their appeal (few but deep roots outperform the many but shallow during a drought). Focusing on ideological content maintains a stronger audience connection. In short the news has become biased, polarized, and sensationalized. This shift has created a fertile soil in which those with a personal political agenda (intent) may flourish. This shift in the news landscape has amplified an attention grabbing style of reporting known as “factual… but not truthful” otherwise known as “fake news.” It’s not fake because it’s a flat out lie, rather it is “fake” because while some parts are factually true there are omissions of crucial facts – facts that give the story the proper context needed to get the whole picture. Not volunteering information is not “lying” so when caught in their subterfuge they can plausibly hand wave it away as a simple “mistake” or “oversight.” This factual omission is a mix of laziness/incompetence or a deliberate agenda to craft a specific narrative. When this occurs in other countries we call it propaganda. When it happens here we whistle past the graveyard. 

A fanciful example of factual but not truthful would be “Local shop owner refuses to sell steak to illegal aliens!” – this would be factually true, however the story is omitting the additional detail that the store had run out of steak the prior day. The reader is left with the implicit message that the storeowner is a racist jerk. Whenever the narrative reinforces a reader’s preconceptions no further scrutiny is warranted in his mind. This is a common tactic to impugn political adversaries; report words out of context, often omitting a follow up sentence that contradicts the implication of the headline (Google “fine people hoax + Scott Adams”). 

This same level of “factual but not truthful” reporting has infected nearly all of the corporate media’s reporting on the Covid-19 pandemic. As a result Americans are dramatically overestimating their risk of death. A recent survey revealed that people believe those aged 44 and younger account for 30% of deaths; the actual figure is 2.6%. Further, Americans overestimated the risk of death for those under 24 by 50-fold. As of October 21 a scant 437 people aged 24 and below have died from Covid-19 in the US. The cumulative risk for that group is 1 death per 236,000. This is on par with the one-year odds of dying by falling down stairs. “Oh but they could spread it to the teachers!” Ok. Some more context. Those aged 25-64 have a 1 in 2,500 chance of dying from Covid – this is in fact the same risk prior to Covid of dying from any respiratory disease. In other words their risk profile has not changed.  But even these numbers don’t tell the whole picture. These numbers are averages. The risk is heterogeneous, not homogenous. Unless you have multiple comorbidities your risk is far lower than whatever average is shown for your age demographic. 

For those still worried even at 2,500 to 1 imagine the following: there are 2,500 doors lined up and you have one chance to open the correct door to reveal the grand prize. When considered in terms of something desired (the prize) this seems almost hopeless, right? But curiously if we merely flip from prize to punishment (death) we suddenly feel like it’s almost certain we will pick the wrong door on the first try. This inability to rationally assess risk leads to these foolish egocentric displays of “die ins” by teachers at various schools and universities. Odd. We’re told masks “work” so I can’t imagine what they are concerned about. 

 Even though the young face almost no risk from Covid (indeed, 2017-2018 flu deaths are 5x the current Covid deaths for those under 17) there is a much deadlier threat wending its way toward our youth if we do not return to normal as quickly as possible. One would think if there were a looming threat that might kill hundreds of thousands of young people this would be headline-making news. Instead we get crickets. To what do I refer? The CDC reported in June that in the prior month an astounding 25% of respondents aged 18-24 reported seriously considered suicide. To put that in context, the normal range is 7-11% — over the prior 12 months! For those aged 45-64 the number was only 3.8%. Clearly those making policy are immune to its impacts. Astoundingly many embrace these disruptive measures as they blithely ignore their own children who are powerless to reverse this insane course. Even if 1% followed through on their inclinations it would be over one hundred thousand dead. When compared to fewer than 400 deaths to date for that same age cohort the choice becomes clear: resume normal lives for our youth without delay. No more threats of shutting down schools. No more social distancing. No more masks. No more online classes. Childhood years are a precious resource that adults are looting from their children and squandering in a futile attempt to hold back this tide with a sponge. 

Rescue our Seniors

Where there is death, we grieve. Death comes in many forms. It manifests not merely as the cessation of biological life also as the irreversible termination of relationships and experiences. We grieve that which is meaningful that we can’t get back. The truth of this is borne out by considering the grief many experience during the aftermath of a romantic break up. A rarely acknowledged collateral damage of this pandemic “shut down” is that of 3.2 million high school seniors. They are indeed experiencing that grief – and – just like the economic fall out for “non-essential” workers and businesses – no one seems to care.  Each passing day is a milestone that they should have experienced – Prom, honors night, senior night and apparently now graduation itself – but which has now been snatched away, never to return. You can delay a vacation, a wedding, a birthday party – you cannot delay that which cannot be rescheduled. And it is not merely events that some might dismiss as superficial trivialities. For student athletes counting on their athletic performance to qualify them for scholarships or team placement these set backs will have real world financial consequences.  If you find these statements overly dramatic, then I can only conclude you are not currently the parent of a high school senior. If you believe your own deferring of your life events is a sacrifice then you are deluding yourself. A real sacrifice is giving up something one can NEVER get back. In this regard high school (and college) seniors qualify. Sitting on the couch watching Netflix does not. Some are being asked to sacrifice much more than others. I take that back, they are not being “asked”, they are being “told.” Sacrifice leaves a much more bitter taste in your mouth when forced upon you rather than voluntarily given.

For 18 years they have anticipated that which every generation before them has enjoyed. But instead they get Lucy snatching the football away at the last second. Specious platitudes about how “we are all thinking of you” ring hollow; stop thinking and start doing. The Governor and the school boards CAN do something. If they actually cared about our seniors’ interests they would be steadfastly crafting a concrete plan to restore as much of what has been lost of the senior year rather than hiding behind non-committal weasel words of “hoping”  to try this or that. If anyone truly cared they could still squeeze several senior year milestones into a resurrected last two weeks of school. Not ideal, but better than nothing at all. And to all you parents trying to help, please stop. Well intentioned but poorly considered ideas of parents posting their own graduation photos online to honor their senior is pouring salt on an open wound. Honestly, this is like sending selfies from your ski trip to your buddy who broke his legs.

The constant false hope has been a destructive psychological rollercoaster. First it was just two weeks of closure, then two more, then finally, sorry, school year is over and oh by the way we’ve made this decision over 6 weeks in advance of the end of the school year. Why make decisions so far out? What purpose does it serve other than to virtue signal one’s adherence to the groupthink of the mob? If you can close schools on 3 days notice you can open them on 3 days notice. This is school, not the moon landing.

So what to do? At least in Georgia the outbreak and deaths have never gotten anywhere near what they claimed and we are clearly “over the hump” at this point (see here and here) . The Governor should permit the public school systems to resume normal operations if they so desire. Each school district can tailor their response to their own environment and to the desires of their parents and seniors. If schools are opened but some are still concerned for their health they are free to stay at home and continue as they have. But, we should not let the fears of some override the desires of everyone else. Hold high school sports, hold the Prom, hold Senior night – if people want to attend these events they can, but nobody is forcing anyone to attend them, it is quite easy to opt out: just don’t go. 

We have nothing to fear…

Amidst the current global pandemic of COVID-19 there is another more sinister and stealthy infection moving through society: BBD-20, Binary Brain Disease. It renders the victim incapable of analyzing any topic, in particular the COVID response, in anything other than a good/bad false choice mode. For years this disease festered amongst the political class but for the most part was confined to that realm. It has now broken through those ranks and spread to the general populace. It sickens the soul of this country, as its victims willingly disown the Constitution while all but begging for martial law. And people wonder how the fascist regimes in Germany, Italy, and Japan so easily subdued their populace into compliance.  They did so through fear; fear of the “other”. Today that other is not some corporeal enemy but instead the invisible specter of a potential harm. 

Currently the most common symptom of BBD-20 is the belief that any discussion regarding the immense social, economic, and mental devastation resulting from bankrupting tens of millions of people equates to an obvious desire to kill grandma and millions like her. Furthermore the infected commonly engage in very public virtue signaling via sanctimonious pronouncements about how obviously basic morality compels us to lock ourselves in our basement for an indeterminate period in order to protect the “vulnerable”. Newsflash: those that are immune compromised face that risk from all diseases, not just COVID. Anyone else at risk with COVID should protect himself or herself and not expect the rest of the planet to bankrupt themselves trying to protect them. There are reasonable precautions and there are unreasonable. Right now we are in the unreasonable zone, but even the mere thought of a conversation about dialing it back to the reasonable zone sends BBD-20 victims into apoplexy.

I suppose this is to be expected. Our society is largely the product of a public school system that propagandizes its citizenry into the false narrative that the state is our savior. A savior is of course omniscient (after all a less wise being cannot save us). It is imprudent to question our betters, so unsurprisingly those of us that do so are chastised to no end: “How dare you question such and such, don’t you know he’s an EXPERT!?” This mistaken belief in state level omniscience compels many to suspend their critical faculties and blindly follow the state anointed “experts.” Never mind that these very same “experts” told us in January that,

“this is not something that the citizens…should be worried about right now.” (Fauci, Jan 2020)

First we are told we don’t need masks, now we are told we do. Ok, well which is it? Were they wrong then and right now, or right then and wrong now? Were there weapons of mass destruction or were there not? When exactly is the state lying to us or when are they merely incompetent? I suspect it is a bit of both, after all, the political class (elected and appointed) are largely made up of the C-students that couldn’t cut it in the real world and so have carved out a cushy sinecure in the hierarchy of state mediocrity.

Again this ignorance is to be expected. The state school systems do not teach economics. They barely teach history. Nobody learns about tradeoffs, marginal benefits, or the division of labor. If they did they would understand one does not simply “stop” the marketplace and restart it later with little to no harm. If these concepts were taught, then the political class would understand one can’t repair the damage that they are causing throughout society by merely printing money. Most people genuinely have no idea how the goods they order on Amazon end up on their front porch. Even the most mundane of products is the result of the truly invisible hand of the market that coordinates millions of individuals across hundreds of sectors. To truly grasp the depth of that statement I encourage the reader to take a look at “I, Pencil” by Leonard Read.

In any event, in a non-political society where “the people” lack the power to meddle with things they don’t understand their lack of understanding would be irrelevant, insofar as they could not derail that which they cannot grasp. The current state of affairs is comparable to people banning electricity but expecting their smart phones to continue working.

It is telling that the more vocal proponents of these “shut it down” measures are those that work either directly or indirectly for the state or a state (tax) supported sector of the economy. Those other people, who have been deemed “non-essential,” they should lose everything. It’s for the “greater good” after all. Those in the non-essential camp see it differently. How grotesque a society have we become when someone can turn to their neighbor and tell them that they are “not essential” to society while they collect their “essential services” paycheck from their state connected employer? Were the hospitality and other “non-essential” sectors of the economy allowed to operate again would they not see a steep decline in revenues? Yes, of course – but it wouldn’t be zero revenue as it is now. At this point anything is better than zero.

            Maybe, just maybe, the solution to this problem is not to go running to the very entity (the state) that is the proximate cause for the dilemma we see ourselves in. The state has only one solution for every problem it encounters: pass a law and then back that law up with the threat of violence – the state is literally a hammer that sees every problem as a nail. There are a million instances of state created distortions in society that have hampered our ability to cope with this pandemic, but let’s just look at the top three:

(a) Certificate of Need laws severely restrict the number of hospitals and hospital beds in Georgia (and in 34 other states in the US) – there would be far more beds right now had these laws never existed, this one is not even debatable,

(b) Regulatory bodies like the FDA have for years thrown up a wide assortment of regulatory barriers that have kept safe, cheap, and effective treatments and tests for a myriad of diseases and ailments from being available to the public or needlessly delayed them for years; to wit, the CDC delayed testing in this country for weeks as it bungled about trying to make its own kit while existing kits were already available

(c) the sclerotic monetary and financial system propped up by the inflationary monetary policies of the Federal Reserve ensured and promoted wide ranging financial moral hazards that rendered most companies unable to cope with unpredictable downturns such as this pandemic – a pandemic that would never have become a pandemic in the US had (a) and (b) not been an issue.

            To turn to the state now as our savior is like asking your dentist to remove all your teeth, both cavity infected and not, when it was that same dentist that advised you your whole life to eat sugary foods and brush your teeth with cake frosting. Yes, perhaps now you have few options, but at least get a second opinion and make a note to ignore or critically evaluate all future advice.