The ultimate test for any scientific hypothesis is its power of prediction. Correctly predicting future events demonstrate one has a true understanding of the subject. An objective analysis of the lessons of history and the impact of a state-centric societal structure can reveal some obvious patterns as well (e.g. fear, rather than reason, as a driver of policy, groupthink pushing out minority opinions resulting in a monoculture of thought, etc.). I am willing to make some predictions based on these patterns:
By January 1, 2032 the following listed items will be generally accepted as true. To be clear I do not merely mean some obscure source will publish supporting information. I make the stronger claim that these predictions will become the dominant mainstream narrative. Just as everyone who was originally cheering for the Iraq invasion now acknowledges it was a colossal mistake, so too will opinion flip on Covid-19 over a similar time frame (8-10 years)
1) Long term studies and comparative statistical analysis will reveal that Covid-19 was not the apocalyptic threat we were led to believe initially. Differential analysis of a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions will show that these measures had no impact on the course of the virus. In other words, cases soared and plummeted exactly as they always have in prior pandemics with no mitigation measures (see Hope-Simpson, 1981)1. It was always going to be a 0.05% global death rate no matter what.
2) It will be proven that masks actually enhanced the spread of the virus. The mechanism will be shown to be an aerosolization of concentrated viral particles by those wearing masks for extended periods. Pundits will navel gaze and suggest “in the future” we should never assume our intuition is correct and that it is important to analyze trade-offs before implementing policy. There is a 10% chance this claim will not bear out because it will be revealed that masks were entirely superfluous because the dominant infection vector was a fecal-aerosol route (in layman’s terms, it was in the farts)2.
3) The Covid-19 spike protein will be proven to be the toxic agent for certain individuals with a particular set of biological markers that can be tested for. It is only after giving the spike-protein laden vaccine to 3 billion people does a pattern of oddly consistent cardiac issues emerge and it is realized other parts of the virus would have been safer targets for triggering an immune response. Oops. Guess that is what happens when you rush a vaccine to market without really understanding the target pathogen.
4) The DTAP vaccine will be shown to be the primary reason those under age 24 were nearly universally immune to any serious consequences from Covid (as all children must get DTAP for school). Following this revelation the various Covid vaccines will be pulled from the market and a general (and safer) DTAP vaccination is used for anyone concerned about Covid.
5) Additional longer-term studies will demonstrate that Hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin are effective agents in attenuating symptoms of Covid and preventing death when given at the proper stage of infection. No one will apologize to Trump.
6) The driver’s license/state ID will emerge as a de facto “Vaccine Passport” as impositions by the federal government (TSA) for proof of vaccination will merge vaccination status into the REAL ID system. Driver licenses will henceforth require annual renewals, as it will be necessary to show proof of your annual Covid and flu shots. Since a driver’s license/state ID is already required for a myriad of activities (work, banking, loans, leases, travel, but not voting, that would be racist) it will be trivial for the Federal (or state) governments to push onto the citizenry new annual vaccines. Politicians can then innocently claim this is not a “vaccine passport”, rather an “enhanced drivers license.” Once politicians discover they can mandate behavior by making one’s ability to interact in the world contingent on compliance with their dicta, then there will be no end of the items that will henceforth be linked to one’s drivers license (“to renew your license this year requires a minimum Social Credit Score of 80”).
7) The “lab release” theory on the origin of Covid will transition from fringe conspiracy theory to generally accepted as a reasonable hypothesis and eventually proven as definitely true. Whoops! This one is happening in real time.
My only caveat to these predictions is that I may be overestimating the time frame. I originally predicted on these pages in February 2019 that Jussie Smollet would be shown to be a liar within 6 months; the actual time frame? 6 days. So it would not surprise me if most of these come to pass within 4 years or sooner. We shall see. In the meantime see if you can beat the Covid quiz at: www.covidchartsquiz.com