Needs of the many?

Shortly after the Supreme Court’s ruling on the PPACA (Obamacare) case came down last Thursday the world of Facebook exploded in a firestorm of cross fired epithets both praising and decrying the ruling. Frankly I’m just a bit burnt out on it all, as it would seem everything that could be said has been said ad nauseam (and yet I’m writing this article!) I think both sides believe or hope their words can persuade those on the other side, but for the most part it is a futile exercise. The Facebook community and its ilk are no different than Congress or the President; everyone is just talking past each other and no one is listening. In order to persuade you must listen and understand why they hold their beliefs or ideology, otherwise for the most part they will just hear your words but not understand the meaning. My goal in writing these articles has always been to inform and thus persuade. I’d like to think I’ve done a good job at this however I recognize the reality that I’m likely preaching to the choir while being ignored by the congregation.

If you have read this far and you are a pro-Obamacare person then congratulations for being willing to have an open mind. In order for me to have a ghost of a chance of possibly having you consider that socialized healthcare is perhaps not the best route to help people in need, I need your help. I need to understand why you support Obamacare. Please consider the following questions and feel free to respond at the contact info below.

1. Is healthcare a right? If so, why?

2. If healthcare is a right then is there any moral distinction between securing a negative right (i.e. a right secured only through the inaction of others) vs. securing a positive right, such as healthcare (i.e. a right secured only through the action of others)? Stated differently, is it moral to compel other individuals to act on one’s behalf under threat of state sanctions because one’s needs are deemed greater than those from whom the compulsion is placed upon? I believe all major world religions teach to receive help one must ask, not demand?

3. If you believe the needs of some outweigh the rights of others, then do the ends justify the means? If you agree that normally positive rights are by definition amoral, then are violations of morality justified if it might save a human life? (i.e. progressive taxation is theft but is it justified because it might be used for some useful purpose)?

4. If the ends should not justify the means (as this premise can justify any action), then do you believe that with healthcare we can make an exception because people’s lives are on the line? If yes, then why is it ok to violate some rights (property, contract, liberty) but it is not ok to violate other rights (life, privacy) in pursuit of possibly saving a life? Or is it? Would it be ok to euthanize a healthy person if their organs could save the lives of 10 people? Clearly the greater good is served by this action, so why is this wrong yet theft to possibly save a life is perfectly fine? Both involve a “taking” of property.

I understand the desire to help others; all of us on both sides of the debate want to help those in need, we merely disagree on the best course toward achieving that end. If you’re willing to look at the history (see  these articles) you will see that it is government, through regulation and subsidization (Medicare) that has caused prices to spiral out of control. Prior to 1965 (Medicare established) healthcare prices were stable and low and those in need were never turned away owing to the charitable nature of the American citizenry and her doctors. To suggest those in need were not helped is to slander the American people as implicit in the charge is that we are an uncharitable bunch that can only do “good” when forced to do so by our government.

RIP United States of America 7/4/1776 – 6/28/2012 – Obamacare upheld

Below is the body of a letter I sent to my employees today informing them of what they can expect now that Obamacare has been upheld as “constitutional”

All

Today June 28, 2012 the United States of America ceased to be a constitutional republic and is now a fully democratic fascist* oligarchy in which a tyrannical majority elect conceited tyrants that impose their will on all.

What does this mean for you as an employee? It means quite simply that health insurance rates will continue to skyrocket year over year at a 25% clip and that our only recourse is to continue raising deductible’s on the few policies we are even allowed to offer in order to keep premiums anywhere near close to affordable. To prepare for this you will be well advised to begin setting aside 10% of your gross income each paycheck into a separate account to build up a fund to cover the very high deductibles you will need to maintain in order to have some semblance of being able to afford coverage.

This is not a requirement – I am merely offering you my suggestion as to the most logical course of action to protect your own self interest given that government mandates and subsidies do nothing but drive cost of out of control (housing, healthcare, tuition – oddly all 3 have out of control costs and oddly government meddles in all 3, a coincidence? I think not). This is not opinion, this is simple economic fact that those in power simply refuse to believe, preferring to close their eyes, stamp their feet and repeat the mantra “yes we can, yes we can, yes we can” –

it is no different than jumping out of an airplane sans parachute and willing yourself not to crash into the earth… until you actually hit the earth you might believe it is working… but then reality hits you all at once.

Long term (I’m thinking 2020-2030), the government will take over healthcare and we will move to a single payer system after the “private” market becomes entirely too expensive, so naturally the government must step in to save us all.

“Gee thanks for those crutches there, oh right, you’re the one that broke my legs”.

But at least by then you will have saved up enough for medical coverage so you might still be able to afford “private” health coverage on a for cash basis so as to avoid the several month waiting list to actually even see a doctor.

Unfortunately when government steps in to take over it will likely put us and other small employers out of business as I foresee the government simply mandating that employers contribute $40-$50k/year per employee for health insurance that would go to the government – that’s in ADDITION to pay, therefore in order to recoup the cost we would have to double or triple prices and those high prices will severely if not all but eliminate the market for us… whose going to buy a $75 bottle of Marine Buffer?

So start sharpening those resumes for the eventual government job we’re all going to have, because there won’t be any others around. Think I’m overstating the case here – just look at Greece… we’re getting a preview of what is to come to us in 10-15 years… that’s how all socialist/communist/fascist countries end up. We are well on the way on the road to serfdom ( http://goo.gl/m05az )

Greg

* please look up “fascist” for yourself… it does not mean “nazi” as so many seem to believe these days – it is a form of socialism in which there is putative private ownership of business however government directs most aspects of how business is permitted to operate, thus government truly controls the business infrastructure while maintaining the illusion it is otherwise

Crackle, SNAP, Pop(ular) goes the entitlements!

Do “food stamps” mitigate hunger among the American poor? No. Although with a name like “food stamps” one can be forgiven for falling into the trap of believing so. Following the current cutesy trend that apparently requires government programs have clever acronyms that describe their purpose (PATRIOT Act, HIRE Act, etc.) it has been renamed SNAP (get it, “snap” your fingers and food appears courtesy of the US taxpayer!) But I digress. Why do they not help? Three reasons: (a) fungibility & marginal utility, (b) socialized costs and (c) dehumanization through dependency.

Fungibility means that any given unit of something is indistinguishable from any other unit of the same material. For example, grain, silver or dollars are fungible, however diamonds or tires are not (as they vary in quality). Marginal utility is the concept that given some good, as one procures more of said good one values each subsequent unit less. So if you have a small amount of water, you value it highly as you must satisfy your most urgent needs first (thirst). But, as you gain access to more water you may then opt to “waste” it on less urgent needs, e.g. washing your car. Ok, so with that little economics lesson out of the way, how does this relate to food stamps? The food stamp money is fungible with regular money. In other words food stamps are no different than cash. Why? Absent food stamps the marginal value of the money recipients possess is very high and they will spend it on the most urgent needs (food) first. People in poverty aren’t going to NOT buy food and instead buy sneakers, movie tickets and haircuts. That would just be stupid. If we then give them money earmarked for food, they will still buy food (with food stamp money) AND NOW other (less urgent) goods with the money they used to spend on food. We are just playing a shell game, pretending this money is for this and that money is for that. It’s all just mixed together. Fungibilty is the reason some recipients can afford fancy nails and cell phones.

A secondary issue is that of socialized costs. Because the program exists people are willing to work for less than they would absent the program because they know they can count on it. If I know I need $15k/year to survive but I know the government will give me $5k/year in food stamps, then I’m going to be a lot more willing to work for $10k/year. So the employer pays less because the employee is willing to accept the lower wage BECAUSE OF the program. Then the government taxes the employer and hands the money over to the employee as food stamps. So in the end both end up with the same amount of money. So what did we accomplish here? Why not just cut out the middleman (the government) and pass the savings onto everyone? Once again we are just playing a shell game where the only beneficiary is the government.

The state is our shepherd, we (the sheeple) shall not want.

The final issue is the social harm the program engenders through the promotion of an entitlement mentality (literally – the government is running ads trying to get people to join the SNAP rolls). This mentality dehumanizes the recipient by promoting the idea they are merely wards of the state who cannot survive without suckling at the state’s communal teat. The state is our shepherd, we (the sheeple) shall not want. Inherent to the structure of any entitlement program is an economic feedback incentive that promotes attachment. The more money you make the less benefits you qualify for. I think U2 captured the idea well, “running to stand still.” Why expend great effort to obtain that which you can obtain from no effort at all?

I know politicians mean well, but their complete ignorance of basic economics and incentives creates problems bigger than the ones they were trying to solve. Just because something seems intuitively obvious (state sponsored welfare helps people) doesn’t mean it is correct. The notion that the sun revolved around the earth was intuitively obvious for centuries until someone took the time to apply some thought to the question. Big problems require deliberate, contemplative analysis, not thoughtless, knee-jerk, feel-good solutions.

Carrots are good for your health (insurance)

The Supreme Court is expected to deliver its decision this week on the PPACA (“Obamacare”) so while we wait with baited breath I thought I might offer an alternate approach to achieving the goals of the “Shared Responsibility Payment” (“the mandate”), which is the core issue of the court’s upcoming decision. The mandate is structured as a disincentive (“stick”) against not buying health insurance. Constitutional issues notwithstanding, the mandate is just about the worst method to achieve that goal. The penalty by 2016 would be a mere $695/year or 2.5% of household income (whichever is greater). Considering that an individual policy costs anywhere from $3-$6k/year it is more costly to pay the fine than to buy insurance only for those who earn more than $180k/year (3.7% of taxpayers ). In other words, the mandate incentivizes 96% of taxpayers to drop their insurance in order to realize a financial gain. If the Supreme Court does not overturn the PPACA on constitutional grounds then, they should overturn it on sheer stupidity grounds.

Although libertarians are opposed to any government intervention in any market, IF it seems a foregone conclusion that our overlords will simply not stop until they’ve “done” something about healthcare then I suppose it is my duty to point out how to properly incentivize behavior. Incentives (“carrots”) work much better than disincentives (“sticks”). My solution uses our existing legal framework: contracts and government enforcement thereof.

Referees don’t make the rules, they just enforce them.

Health insurance should operate like life insurance. With life insurance you purchase a policy for X number of years. In so doing you enter into a contractual relationship with the insurer whereby you promise to pay them $X dollars per year for Y years and they promise to not cancel the policy regardless of changes to your health. If they break that contractual promise, then the government steps in and forces them to live up to their end of the bargain (lawsuit).

So in the case of health insurance there should be a “term-health policy” whereby you contract with the insurer for X number of years (typically one’s expected lifetime) and the insurer provides you a price structure that is guaranteed for the life of the policy. The “carrot” here is that the longer the term, the better the rate, so rates would be much lower than they are today. Pretty simple: you promise to pay for a long time, they give you a low rate and promise to not cancel. If either party breaks their promise then the government steps in and enforces the terms of the contract.

So, how would this work in practice? Consider the following: If you cancel a policy there would be penalties, however (and here is the key) if you later want to reinstate coverage you would be required to bring your premium payments current by paying all the premiums you would have otherwise paid during the lapse in coverage OR you could obtain a brand new policy with premiums that reflect your current health status and shorter term period, so they would be exponentially higher.* This “discount-incentive/payback-disincentive” system eliminates the free rider problem because (a) in general people prefer to pay less now rather than more later and (b) you gain nothing by not carrying insurance and only trying to get it when sick. By removing government regulation we would see market driven solutions like this one, where the only limit is human imagination rather than bureaucratic fiat. Insurers should be permitted to figure out the best way to incentivize people to maintain their polices IF they must be straddled with the legal requirement that they may not deny coverage.** Those insurers that figure out the best methods will be copied thus improving compliance over time. However insurance companies often seem as inept as the government (bureaucracy is the same everywhere!) so I thought they could use a nudge in the right direction.

We, free individuals in a free market, should make the rules amongst ourselves (contracts) – it is government’s job only to enforce, not make, those rules. Referees don’t make the rules, they just enforce them.

* If an insurer went out of business the law could specify that as long as you had a policy in place it could be transferred to a new insurer irrespective of your current health condition. A more free market approach however would be to take out insurance against the insolvency of your own health insurer, so if they do go out of business your policy would provide you a lump sum payment to establish a new policy elsewhere. In such a system the insolvency premium would reflect the relative risk of your health insurer, i.e. a new upstart carrier might offer really low rates but carry a high risk premium and thus the cost of the health premium + insolvency premium might be the same as a more established carrier. Because those insurers insuring against insolvency have a vested interest in not paying claims they will be the ones to “regulate” the solvency of the health insurers through auditing and such. The insurers would permit this regulation because they will know that few people would buy their health policies if no other carriers will issue insolvency policies that cover them.

**In order to transition to this new system, we should dismantle Medicare (which currently covers wealthy old people) and Medicaid and use those funds to establish a new temporary program that would subsidize the premiums of the unhealthy AND destitute, i.e. those that truly need help as opposed to those whom the premium might merely be inconvenient or difficult. In the long run the “pre-existing condition” issue would go away as the market would incentivize parents to purchase life-term health insurance for their children at birth (these policies would be so inexpensive even the “poor” could afford them). The parents would pay the premiums until age 18 at which point the child would “inherit” the policy with an excellent rate. They would have a huge incentive to never cancel as “lifer” policies would be the ones with the lowest overall cost since they have the longest guaranteed term. 

Are those pumpkins next to that tree?

Democracy is sometimes described as “the tyranny of the majority over the minority” (e.g. two wolves and a sheep voting on what’s for dinner), however a more appropriate description might be “the tyranny of the uninformed over the informed.” Georgia’s new license plate is but just one mundane case in support of this secondary meaning.

To be fair, it is an attractive design… for a t-shirt. But it’s not going on a t-shirt, it’s going on a moving object and its sole purpose is to rapidly convey information to an observer (e.g. plate number and state). At this it fails miserably. I recently observed a new stationary plate not more than 30 feet away while filling my car with gas and I simply could not make out the number even after staring for some time (yes, my vision is fine). The plate is simply too busy. There is too much color and too many contrasting objects. These design elements while “pretty” do nothing but serve to camouflage the numbers. Sometimes “less is more” (think Apple’s simple package designs vs Microsoft’s “where is Waldo” package designs). Fortunately there is a “plain” tag, although it is not much better due to a dark colored peach in the background obscuring the two central numbers. The only designs that came close to being appropriately designed for the task were tags #1 and #8 and possibly #4.

Georgia is not alone. In the past decade many states have updated their plates to more colorfully busy designs that look great on a magazine cover but are utterly unreadable from more than 6 feet away. This plate beautification trend is symptomatic of a larger dysfunctional political process wherein it is believed that uninformed popular opinion can never be wrong. Rather than choosing politicians who possess the requisite abilities for proper job execution (fiscal discipline, faithfulness to the constitution) we choose them based on superficial qualities (i.e. attractiveness, personality, pandering ability or sometimes whether or not they have a D or R next to their name). The result is a political class that for the most part doesn’t understand what the purpose of government is. Likewise, by employing uninformed popular opinion in its decision making process, government has managed to fumble even the simple task of choosing a plate that succeeds at just one function (legibility) by turning it into a popularity contest that seems more suited to choosing a design for a t-shirt.

And it gets even better. The final design wasn’t even chosen by the people, although it was winnowed down to the top three through a biased on-line voting scheme. The final design was chosen by none other than Governor Nathan Deal. Reminds me of that commercial…”you wouldn’t want your doctor doing your job (cut to doctor playing instrument or running jackhammer), so why are you doing his.” Do you really want your governor acting as an untrained art director, going simply on his gut of what looks “nice” versus actually having someone with training in the field of design who understands the actual task of a license plate: being legible from a distance. Perhaps the governor should decide what books are read in our state run schools based on the cover design?

Having people vote on the final license plate design is not like having them vote on the Peachtree Road Race t-shirt. Rather, it is more like having them vote on which model of police cruiser should be purchased or how thick the asphalt should be on a new road. Hopefully our government buildings won’t someday be engineered by uninformed popular opinion… unfortunately our laws are driven by the same misguided process. Perhaps that explains the mess we are in.

Where are the jobs?

Following up to last week’s post (read here). Although the constant cycle of supply and demand tends to make it unclear which process came first, in the end we can trace the inception point to supply. Supply that can be used to satisfy demand comes about through savings and so it is savings that ultimately is the source of jobs (employees are paid prior to sales). So, since the popular media tells us that corporate profits and cash on hand have never been higher, why is job growth so anemic?

There is actually a great deal of job creation (see chart), even at the height of the recession there were millions of jobs being created. Unfortunately, more were being destroyed. However, it is misleading to suggest there are few jobs being created. Further investigation of the chart reveals that  job growth rates have been trending downward for the last 12 years (no BLS data for this statistic exists prior to 1992). Why would this be?

Quarterly Job Creation & Loss as % of Workforce

 

1) Regulation: regulation hinders jobs in three ways: (a) it acts as a stealth tax by increasing dead-weight costs (for example, a report last year by the House Government Oversight and Reform Committee stated the Obama administration has established nearly 300 new regulations that will cost businesses an additional $60 billion each year), (b) it acts as a barrier to new firms that would otherwise compete with established firms either by criminalizing innovative ideas or imposing paperwork compliance costs that are disproportionately burdensome to smaller business and (c) in some cases it simply outlaws entirely certain types of business (see the Lacey Act as one example). To illustrate point B consider the following: where would Apple be today if Microsoft had encouraged regulations that required competitors to conform to their standards. It would be illegal for Apple to innovate and thus deviate from those “standards”… and we’d all be running Windows 95 while listening to our Zunes and the iPad would be mere fanciful sci-fi fodder. Because the computer industry is relatively unregulated, there has been tremendous innovation and growth. But in other heavily regulated sectors (health insurance, agriculture, automotive, etc.) there is little to no innovation because bureaucratic micromanagement simply does not allow it. Without innovation there is no growth and without growth there is no reason to have a new job.

2) Risk: Many of those in government condescendingly dismiss the idea that risk arising from unknown tax costs contributes to slow job growth. Their condescension is rooted in ignorance of the real world, a world where risk is a constant companion. But in the government’s ivory tower that companion is nowhere to be found. Their obliviousness to risk is apparent in the squandering of other people’s money on “good ideas” that ultimately fail and for which they have zero accountability. Although taxes were higher in the 1990’s, at least they were stable. Tax rates that vary year to year on the whim of Congress are more destructive than high taxes as people focus their energy on gaming the tax system rather than in pursuing productive goals.  Think of it like this: what if the final price for a car you bought today would not be revealed to you until 5 years from now. You would start your monthly payments now and at the end of 5 years you’ll either have it paid off or owe a whole lot more. How likely are you going to buy a car with that level of cost risk? Likewise, those with money to invest in new jobs also will wait until they can be certain of the final costs. Risk makes people cautious… unstable tax policies that increase financial risk will increase cautiousness.

Risk makes people cautious… unstable tax policies that increase financial risk will increase cautiousness.

3) Training: the stock bubble destroyed financial capital, however the housing bubble destroyed financial & human capital. Financial capital destruction can be swept under the inflationary rug through Federal Reserve printing press slight of hand, however there is no keystroke subterfuge that can wipe away the years people spent training and gaining experience in construction and related industries. In short, human capital was misallocated into the wrong sectors of the economy. The government operated a national multi-year housing circus financed with artificially suppressed interest rates and the implied moral hazard of “too big to fail”. People were attracted to that monetary opportunity like flies to honey. But then overnight the government flipped the switch and the circus went dark. Now the circus participants must spend years retraining. Training takes time.

Ultimately the market can heal itself if the price mechanism is left to operate free of government manipulation or interference (the mechanism whereby wages for high demand jobs will rise and thus attract people to train for those sectors). Propping up burst economic sectors or inflating new ones will only postpone the fever that ultimately is needed to cure the economy and restore healthy job growth.

Chicken or the egg?

Which came first, supply or demand? At first blush this question appears to be of the intractable “chicken and egg” variety, however upon closer inspection we find the correct answer: Supply. How so? Surely no one will supply something if there is no demand. In order to solve this riddle we must first understand what is meant by “demand.” In the vernacular it means mere want or desire, however in economic parlance the meaning has a subtle and important difference. Demand is both the desire AND the means to fulfill that desire. In other words, it’s not enough just to want something; you must have something to offer in exchange.

No one can demand something until AFTER they themselves have produced something.

 

Why are demand and desire not economically equivalent? Consider the following: how relevant are people with no money at an auction? If we define demand as mere desire then as human desires are unbounded so too must be demand. Since we know there is not universal infinite demand for every good (i.e. infinite prices), we then know that demand and desire cannot be equivalent for economic purposes. However, desire does play a role. It is the spark that determines what should be produced. Entrepreneurs gauge market desires in order to determine the things that are a safe bet to produce while accounting for people’s ability to pay for such new goods (e.g. high desire/low affordability: people desire flying cars, but few could afford them, low desire/high affordability: nobody desires mud pies even though they could be affordably made, and high desire/high affordability: smartphones are desirable and since they could be affordably produced, they were).

So, if I want what Joe has, I have to two choices: (a) I can take it from Joe by force (the warrior path) or (b) I can produce something Joe wants and trade with him (the market path). In order for me to “demand” something I must first produce (supply) something. No one can demand something until AFTER they themselves have produced something. If Joe and Greg exist alone in the universe we can demand things all we want, but none of those demands will be met until we first produce something. Therefore supply must come first.

So if supply comes first, then where does job creation start, from those that spend money (demanders) or those that save it (suppliers)? Popular opinion and a Keynesian worldview err in the belief that demand drives job creation, but that is mere superstition. Logic clearly demonstrates it is savings that are the source of new jobs. It might seem intuitive that spending would create new jobs, after all, that money eventually goes to pay workers, right? True, but applauding the result of production (demand) while ignoring the source of such demand (supply) is a disingenuous attempt to ignore reality: that jobs are produced from saved funds. Policies that ignore reality and promote spending at the expense of saving can do nothing but harm job growth.

To understand why savings are critical to new jobs we must spiral all the way back to a business’s inception. What was the source of funds to pay those first workers before anything they had produced was sold? It came from the invested capital of the owners of the business, i.e. their savings (profit from prior ventures). To make this point a bit clearer imagine the following: all businesses decide to disburse all profit as bonuses to their employees, so all business net income is $0. Should be great for the economy right, all that extra cash floating around? Not really, the increased demand cannot be met because businesses have no unused funds (i.e. saved profit) from which to hire any new employees or purchase equipment. If they hired any now it would have to be on the condition that they could not be paid until the things they produced actually sold. Of course they can lower the pay of the other workers, but that’s my point, the funds withheld to lower the pay represents what was previously characterized as profit/savings: only profit/savings can create new jobs. Every attempt to redistribute it or tax it only undermines the job creation process.

So this begs the question, since companies have a lot of saved funds and profit why isn’t there more job creation going on now? The answer to that question will have to wait until next week…

Legalize potato marriage now!

President Obama’s recent “outing” by Joe Biden on the same sex marriage issue along with North Carolina’s Amendment 1 which bans all non heterosexual marriages has bubbled this divisive issue back to the top of the lava lamp that is our political landscape. It does not matter what the President nor the voters of North Carolina think. Laws based on the mercurial moods of the public are a recipe for tyranny, i.e. the Rule of Men rather than the Rule of Natural Law. Natural law is the immovable bedrock that supports a stable framework that PROTECTS our natural rights, not abridges them.

 

Not so recently marriage licenses were used as a mechanism to prevent whites from marrying non-whites.

To understand the marriage issue we must first gain some perspective. The historical purpose of a state granted marriage license was to cause the applicants to plead to the state for permission to marry in order that they prove that there was nothing about the marriage the state might find objectionable. In other words you had to ask for permission from your master (the state) to partake in a natural right (right of association and speech). State prohibitions on marriage fluctuate with public perceptions of what constitutes a “valid” marriage. Not so recently marriage licenses were used as a mechanism to prevent whites from marrying non-whites. Today we view that as an absurd restriction, but the public did not view it that way a mere 50 years ago. If the majority is always right then does that mean the “rightness” of an action depends upon mass opinion? Surely such moral relativism has no place in a modern constitutional republic.

For those that suggest the Bible establishes inerrant moral edicts and therefore the ban on same sex marriage is valid, please recall that the Bible too was often used not only as justification against interracial marriage but as a justification for slavery as well. My point is not to disparage the Bible but rather to point out that whether it is the Bible or the US Constitution, humans will always find a way to interpret a complex document to fit their desired viewpoint. How do we know we aren’t doing that right now? Some are sure they aren’t doing so now, but people 50 years ago were sure they weren’t doing it then either. But even were we to agree the Bible is clear on this issue, do we truly want to live in a theocratic state where laws are based upon current religious viewpoints? As I have covered previously, morality that is imposed by law does not make one righteous. God gave us free will, our laws should not take away that which God granted (for victimless “crimes”).

Some have argued that if there are no restrictions on marriage this will lead to crazy scenarios with people marrying their cat or a potato. Please. Anybody crazy enough to marry their cat is already crazy… you can’t outlaw crazy, they’ll just find some other crazy thing to do. But even if they did marry their cat, so what? How does that in any way affect your marriage? Do you suddenly stop loving your spouse? Are matrimonial vows nullified? Others argue that children are best raised in a two parent male-female household. I’m not sure by what metric one objectively measures the outcome of child rearing but current evidence shows no deleterious effects. Besides, if we assume that two parent male-female households are best and “best” is the basis by which to outlaw that which is not “best”, then I suppose we must make single parent households illegal as well?

At the end of the day what I propose likely would make neither side of this debate happy, so that by itself should suggest it is the best course of action. In short, return marriage to the private realm. The state (government) has no place in regulating or licensing marriage (contractual associations). The right of association/contract implies we may associate with whomever we choose and in whatever manner we choose as well as giving public notice of such associations. Likewise, no individual or group (churches, health insurers, employers, etc.) can be required to formally recognize such associations. They can if they want to, but there should be no legally mandated consequences to not doing so. That’s what freedom is, freedom to do as you desire as long as it does not infringe on anyone else’s freedoms.

 

Prosperity through tools

What is wealth, or rather, what is the point of wealth? Wealth is the promise of the ability to obtain our wants and desires with minimal effort. In general those that produce much with little effort are wealthier than those that produce little with great effort. And how does one go about producing much with little effort? With tools. Tools make the difficult easy and the impossible possible. Tools are the reason we don’t spend most of our lives simply trying to obtain our next meal. Tools are the reason we have at the beginning of the 21st century a higher standard of living than we did at the beginning of the 20th century or any period prior to that. Increasing wages and increasing standard of living are a direct result of improvements in the efficiency of our tools. Wages did not rise because of unions or the minimum wage, they rose because our tools became more productive.

To those that believe unions or government can force higher wages absent improvements in productivity, please consider this scenario: A bakery employees two people and they make by hand 20 loaves in 12 hours. They are paid $1/hour, or $24 for the pair per day in wages. The bakery sells the loaves for $2 each so it can make up to $40/day, or a net $16 in profit. Now suppose the two employees join a union that demands they be paid $1.50/hour and the bakery has no choice but to agree. Wage costs have now gone to $36/day and to maintain the 40% margin it must now charge $3/loaf. There are three possible outcomes: (1) the public can no longer afford to buy the loaves and the bakery goes out of business (involuntary closure), (2) the bakery tries to operate with a lower margin but quickly finds there are more profitable ventures than baking and since all other bakeries have the same new cost structure all bakeries close (voluntary closure) and an entire industry ceases to exist in the market or (3) the customers accept a higher cost…which then compels them to join unions to demand higher wages from their employers, who in turn raise their prices until all prices spiral upward until a new equilibrium is reached of higher wages AND higher prices.* So ask yourself, what was the point? Either businesses are driven to close their doors (leading to unemployment) or the end result is entirely neutral (wages go up 3 fold and costs go up 3 fold).

Here is how better tools make everyone wealthier. The bakery purchases a new fangled gadget that allows the two employees to make 200 loaves a day. It can now afford to charge only 28¢/loaf while still doubling profit. The employees continue making $12/day but because they are so much more productive the bakery offers them the option of only working 8 hours for the same $12 ($1.50/hour). Because bread costs have gone down everyone in society has more disposable income. The employees are working fewer hours and earning more per hour and the bakery is earning more as well. Everyone wins (society, employees and employer) and no coercion from the state was necessary. Now repeat that in multiple other industries over many years and what you see is an increasing standard of living and wealth. Everyone’s condition is improved over what it otherwise would have been. Some believe that it is mere “high paying” jobs that make society wealthy, but unproductive high wage jobs can do nothing to raise society’s standard of living. I will close with a quote  (attribution varies but the sentiment is valid nevertheless) that crystallizes this sentiment: “While touring China, a businessman came upon a team of nearly 100 workers building an earthen dam with shovels. The businessman commented to a local official that, with an earth-moving machine, a single worker could create the dam in an afternoon. The official’s curious response was, “Yes, but think of all the unemployment that would create.” “Oh,” said the businessman, “I thought you were building a dam. If it’s jobs you want to create, then take away their shovels and give them spoons!”

* For my Austrian economics friends I am glossing over the “supply of money” point so as not to overly detract from my main argument, but for those uninitiated in the core logic of Austrian economics here are more details on the various paths Scenario 3 can take: Of course with point (3) all prices can only rise if the government prints more dollars… in a hard money economy where the supply of money remains constant some prices would go up and others must necessarily go down thus potentially driving those businesses to close shop and their employees to become unemployed. To simplify the supply of money argument imagine the following: You have $10 and there are 4 vendors each selling their wares for $2.50. You are able to buy from all 4. But if they all demanded $5 for their wares then you would only be able to buy from two of them… you would choose the ones you find most valuable and the other two would simply not receive the sale. Repeating that multiple times means those businesses must close as they have no sales. But some could stay open if for example two raise their price to $4, then the other two could obtain sales if they dropped their price to $1 ($4x 2 + $1 x 2 = $10). If they can stay in business on $1 they will survive but if not then they will go out of business. A real world example wherein prices were driven up but vendors were not permitted to drop their prices was with minimum wage laws, these include such services such as milkmen, full-service gas, door men, they simply cease to exist because no one is willing to pay an amount for that service that will cover the government mandated minimum wage that must be incurred to provide that service. Now although these out of work employees would increase the labor supply and drive labor costs down somewhat (to the extent there was still non-union labor in existence, if all were unionized then they would simply remain unemployed and would have to start their own businesses to fend for themselves in a new “underground” union-free economy). To the extent there was not 100% union coverage of the workforce non-union wages would be driven down, i.e. the gains of the union are offset by the losses of everyone else. But even with this net 0 in wages for society there would still be a net loss to society in that the goods and services supplied by those businesses that closed are removed from society and thus it is a net loss to society… the value they formerly produced simply no longer exists.

 


Moral Hazard at the local level

A few weeks ago it was reported in the Morgan County Citizen that the Morgan County Board of Commissioners agreed to fund a $15,000 study in order to determine the economic viability of creating a regional “food hub” in Morgan County. It would seem government backed subsidies of private businesses is not just a federal or state issue but a local one as well. In an of itself there is nothing wrong with the idea of the food hub, the problem is why is any government in any way assisting in funding a possible private enterprise? If the backers of this idea feel it may be a good idea then they need to invest their own funds for this study. If the study finds it is viable and this new enterprise comes into existence will they refund the county the $15,000 fee? Perhaps, but if it indicates it is not viable will they still refund the fee? I’m guessing not, otherwise what would be the point in having the county pay for it, why don’t they just pay for it to begin with? This is a case of “heads I win, tails you lose.”

The wider issue here is this is a miniature version of why we had the recent housing bubble, and that issue is known as “moral hazard.” Moral hazard is when someone else takes on the responsibility for any bad decisions you might make. This tends to increase the number of bad decisions. For example if I told you to go into a casino and gamble as much as you wanted and that if you lost I would reimburse all your losses, how much constraint would you feel about gambling as much as you could vs if it was your own money and it would not be reimbursed? No constraint at all. This is a similar situation. If a group of private investors have an idea for a new venture but they are unsure of the viability of it, why not get the government to pay for the background information? If it is a winner they will start the business, and if a loser than none of them are out any money, only the government (the people) are.

Now I am not accusing anyone of any malfeasance or sinister motives here, my point is that our system is set up in a way where this is simply the normal mode of operation, so why not take advantage of it? But when you codify moral hazard into your governmental system you will only increase the odds for a lot of waste. The counter argument here may be that “this will lead to jobs possibly.” Yes, maybe it will, and maybe it won’t, but why should the people (the government) gamble their money on ideas that may or may not pan out. If the investors think it is a good idea then they need to spend their money and put their money on the table. Diffuse costs and concentrated benefits inevitably lead to problems of economic distortions and cronyism.