Monthly Archives: September 2011

Social Security = Ponzi Scheme

Social Security is an inter-generational Ponzi scheme predicated on the assumption that population demographics would remain in a pyramid shape; a large base of workers supporting a tiny apex of retirees (diffuse costs and concentrated benefits). The “baby-boom” generation changed all that: the pyramid now looks like the Washington Monument. In 1950 sixteen workers supported one retiree, today that ratio is a mere 3 to 1. By 2030 it will only be 2 to 1.*

The argument that Social Security is a Ponzi scheme is so common that the Social Security Administration actually has a webpage devoted to debunking this question. Let’s analyze their arguments and see where they get it wrong.

1) A Ponzi scheme must offer extravagant returns. WRONG: Although extravagant returns are typical (otherwise why invest!) they are not necessary for it to be fraudulent. The fraud is that funds are stolen. It is a form of theft by deception, with the underlying deceit (hook) being that reported returns are entirely fictitious because no investment has occurred. The returns aren’t real so their magnitude is irrelevant. The “return” could be 5% and it would still be a Ponzi scheme.

2) A geometric increase of new investors is needed to sustain a Ponzi scheme. WRONG: Or rather only correct if ALL the “returns” are paid in cash. But not all returns are paid in cash. If statements show satisfactory returns then a majority of investors leave their money alone. To cover withdrawal requests it is necessary to procure new investors at a rate proportionate to the ratio of investors withdrawing funds to investors leaving funds alone. That rate is not geometric if the ratio is < 1.

3) Social Security is described as a “pay-as-you-go” program wherein “money from later participants goes to pay the benefits of earlier participants” and that such programs have an inherent vulnerability to “demographic ups and down.” RIGHT: These statements describe attributes that are true for both systems, so I’m not sure how this is supposed to support their argument. Mathematically there is no difference between the two systems: to be sustainable money going out must equal money coming in. It would be more accurate to say the cash flow of a Ponzi scheme functions by employing a pay-as-you-go system. So, if both systems’ sustainability depends on an identical cash flow model then the two systems are functionally equivalent. In other words, a distinction without a difference is no difference.

These are the common characteristics of both systems:

1) Funds are not invested, merely collected by the perpetrator (government)

2) Excess deposited funds (trust fund) are stolen (“borrowed” by government)

3) Required new funds = (excess funds) – (stolen funds) – (funds paid out)

New funds must equal the funds paid out because any excess is pilfered. As long as those values are equivalent both systems are “sustainable.” The problem arises when one of those values changes and equilibrium cannot be restored. A Ponzi scheme could last for forever if the perpetrator had the ability to compel new investors to join. Social Security has endured for so long only because of the government’s ability to legally force more people to participate and extract ever-increasing sums from the participants. At least in a Ponzi scheme the “investors” are not coerced with violence. With Social Security we have no choice. This is very odd indeed. If Social Security is such a wonderful, successful and loved program why is it not optional? Why is participation forced on us at gunpoint?

Privatize Regulation and Relief

The mainstream media misunderstands the role of the federal government as outlined in the US Constitution. They routinely ask questions to the libertarian leaning Republican candidates (Ron Paul, Gary Johnson) that betray this ignorance. For example, of the seven questions MSNBC asked Ron Paul at the last debate (Sept 7, 2011) four of them focused on this.

The questions presuppose that we need the federal government to provide a cornucopia of services that (mistakenly believed) the private sector could not provide. The underlying accusation in these questions is that if you don’t think the government should do these things then you must think no one should do these things and you are clearly a heartless SOB. To highlight the lack of imagination the questioner (Brian Williams) actually suggested that if the government did not run air traffic control then the only alternative would be that pilots would be doing it themselves in their planes! If he had employed a little investigative journalism he would have easily discovered that Canada actually privatized their air traffic control system in 1996 and has consistently received higher marks than the antiquated government run US system.

In short, the answer to this question is that just because one doesn’t believe the government should be providing a particular service doesn’t mean it should not be done. There is NOTHING that the government does that the private sector can’t do better. Not because somehow the individuals in the private sector are somehow magically smarter and better people. Rather because the private sector is constantly receiving feedback through the profit/loss system. Companies that provide things their customers want receive money and stay in business, companies that don’t lose money and go out of business. What remains are those companies best suited to provide the service. Government has no such feedback; failure is simply an excuse to ask for more money since obviously the failure was entirely due to a lack of money.

For those that believe “some things are just too important to let the private sector run them” and that therefore government must run them, then ask yourselves this: Why doesn’t the government nationalize our food industry? Why aren’t all farms and food processing and distribution government run? Why isn’t food allocated “equally” to local government grocery stores with “fair” prices? Surely food, that product without which we would all die, is important enough that we couldn’t possibly trust the market to handle it? Yes, government does stick its nose into agriculture quite a bit but certainly nothing on the scale of a nationalized government run monopoly of food distribution. Yet somehow the market, with no central planner, is able to magically make food available to everyone in this country. So if we allow the market to handle food (the most important of all goods), why then are we not willing to allow the market to handle other goods, such as education? Retirement? Air traffic control? Health insurance? Product regulations?

But what about drug safety, surely we need the government to handle this? No, we don’t need a monopoly on drug safety. We need several “FDAs” competing with each other. Those that do a good job evaluating drug safety and efficacy will stay in business, and the ones that do a poor job (like the FDA that approved drugs that killed people, but for which they have no accountability) would go out of business. How would this work? We already have an existing model: Underwriters Laboratory. UL is a private organization that is not affiliated with any government. The UL inspired private regulation model is simple and works with any product or service. Here’s how:

Companies sell products. The products might cause harm so companies buy insurance. Insurance companies want to ensure against losses so they require companies be certified by a private certifying agency. If the certifying agency does a good job (preventing damaging products) they make money. The insurer is happy because they aren’t paying out claims. The company is happy because they aren’t getting sued. If the certifying agency does a poor job (allowing damaging products to be sold) then the insurer has to pay claims and the company is sued. That agency goes out of business because no one wants to use them anymore. The good agencies remain, the bad ones go away. It is a positive feedback loop of ever improving self-imposed regulations.

What about national disaster relief? Even easier – ever hear of the Red Cross? I think Ron Paul said it best – “What happened before 1979? We didn’t have FEMA.” Before 1979 did people just lay down and die because there was no federal aid? No, organizations like the Red Cross provided assistance as well as local groups that know their areas much better than the feds. FEMA has created a moral hazard that provides an incentive for people to not take responsibility for themselves (i.e. not buying flood insurance, building fancy homes on hurricane prone beaches, etc.). Private organizations like the Red Cross have a vested interest in seeing their efforts only go toward those that truly need help as they must answer to their donators. Donators don’t want to see their money wasted or swindled away as has happened with FEMA. Unhappy donators = no donations. FEMA answers to no one (or rather it answers only to a bloated government bureaucracy that can’t keep track of the waste, fraud and abuse).

We who believe in liberty of the individual are sympathetic towards our fellow man. We recognize the need for oversight of goods and services. We simply do not accept the proposition that government is the only way to provide such relief or oversight. We think it is the least efficient way to do so. The private market is more efficient due to inherent incentives that provide continuous positive feedback.

Privatize Marriage

The right of association is the right to associate with whomever and for whatever reason we please. We can form businesses, churches, private clubs, unions, or a family. Although the US Constitution does not specify this right (the EU and Canadian ones do) I would like to believe all reasonable people would agree we have a right to associate with whomever we please. Oddly enough this “ignored” right still exists today. A man and a woman can live together as can two men or two women or a man and several women. Some may frown upon these associations but there are no laws prohibiting them. So if people can be with whomever they want, then what is the issue concerning non-traditional marriage? The issue is free speech.

Think of it like this: (1) Is it ok to associate with one or more persons? YES (2) Is it ok to publicly proclaim such an association? NO, or rather, it depends. This is true for marriage as well as for other associations. For example, a business can legally announce that it exists (incorporate) only if the business fits into a predefined pigeonhole established by the government (e.g. C-Corp, LLC, etc). Any other structure is “illegal”. Likewise for marriage.

When a couple marries they are saying to the world: “We publicly proclaim that we bind ourselves together and establish mutually beneficial rights and responsibilities – we no longer wish to be in a transient relationship but rather a responsible and enduring one”. The odd thing is that when government definitions of “permissible” associations ignore non-traditional marriage the message is: “Although you are attempting to enter in a mature and responsible relationship, we would prefer you keep it to yourselves and continue living in a manner consistent with a lack of commitment and responsibility.” In other words, attempting to engage in responsible behavior is ignored. Not permitting such public proclamation of the relationship is a restriction of free speech and clearly violates the 1st Amendment.

If people want to associate (marry) that is their right. If a church will do so, great. If it won’t, then too bad (for the couple). The government should not compel private institutions such as churches to operate contrary to their belief structure. Additionally, their right to make such a proclamation does not mean anyone is required to accept it. The lack of use of force runs both ways. I may not stop you from speaking but that doesn’t mean I have to listen or agree with you.

Shifting gears from the political to the lexicological: words mean something. Changing definitions cause confusion. Redefining “marriage” would be like redefining “cars” to encompass motorcycles because they both have wheels and an engine. If the proponents of non-traditional marriage want a word to define their relationship they would do themselves a big favor by coining a new one; I (and others) suggest “pairriage.”

Government is currently the tool that defines what associations are permissible. Each side fights over the tool in an attempt to force their point of view on everyone. The solution is to get rid of the tool. Privatize all associations and remove from government its ability to define permissible relationships.